JONATHAN: WHAT HAS LUCK GOT TO DO WITH IT?

Perhaps, the right answer to this very interesting question should be, “nothing and everything.”
The first point that calls for consideration is the absorbing track record of a modern day enigma who, like the best of folk heroes has had a fairy tale romance with good fortune. Throughout his political career, and for no diligent effort on his part, President Goodluck Jonathan has had greatness thrust upon his diffident shoulders.
It is tempting to quip that his benefactors saw the latent traits of leadership in him or, were acting out a divine script over which they had little control. But by his sudden and unexpected ascension to the office of president, the added significance of his eponymous first name foisted a special aura on his personality. Here is a man who proves by the sheer marvel of his life, the truth of the much quoted assertion that “power comes from Allah.”
Call if Factor A, if you may, the divine input in the power equations of mortal men, is its most intriguing aspect. The history of Nigeria presents us therefore with captivating records of men propelled into high office by factors beyond our common ken. Records abound also of those who reached for the reigns of authority with adroit confidence and panache but tumbled from the galloping horse of state to the thunderous jeers of opponents and the shocked silence of supporters.
Na aikad da yaro na zuwa Eko! (“I have sent my boy to Lagos”) The Sardauna of Sokoto haughtily referred to the national vice chairman of the Northern Peoples’ Congress (NPC) in these terms after the 1952 elections. Apart from signalling Sir Ahmadu Bello’s lack of faith in the emerging political dispensation, his condescending reference to the person of Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa revealed a dark underbelly of the prevailing power equation in the NPC. Years earlier, Balewa had been schemed out of the leadership of the NPC because he came from a minority tribe, the Bageri, and did not belong to the sarauta, the ruling classes of Northern Nigeria.
As leader of the party with the most members in parliament, the wily sardauna was expected to come down to Lagos and head the first national government formed in partnership with the National Congress of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) and the Action Group (AG). He was unwilling though to vacate the North for the more cerebral, more popular, but thoroughly self-effacing Balewa. The national government was expected to collapse very soon, anyway, so Balewa’s deployment to Lagos was at best a dubious promotion- exile away from the Northern power base, where his persuasive demeanour would be no threat to the overbearing temperament of the Fulani prince.
But Allah willed differently. The national government performed creditably, due largely to the positive attitude of Balewa and some other NCNC and AG ministers, thus paving the way for independence and his eventual emergence as prime minister of the federal republic. The boy had become the man!
In 1978, Shehu Shagari aspired only to a senatorial seat in the emergent 2nd Republic but was nominated by others to vie against the stated desires of Olusola Saraki, Adamu Ciroma and Yusuf Maitama Sule for the number one slot. He triumphed over his more ambitious opponents to become the presidential flag bearer of the National Party of Nigeria, (NPN). We shall leave out examples from the military eras. The case of condemned prisoner, Olusegun Obasanjo, who moved from Death Row in Yola to the Presidential Villa in Abuja in nine months, sums up the evidence of an “invisible hand” that shapes political destinies.
After the euphoria of electoral victory, these men soon found out however, that good work is the complement of good luck and bad luck no excuse for shoddy work. Though the jury is yet to return a final verdict on the Shagari and Obasanjo presidencies, it is perfectly safe to presume that history will be ultimately kind to several of their well-meaning efforts to revitalize the economy for greater efficiency and make Nigeria a better place for all citizens.
Will Jonathan be so favoured as well? It may seem too early to say, but if one can tell a cockerel from the tendril feathers of a chick, then this humble successor to Yar’Adua’s calm and measured but thorough and painstaking approach to issues of state has shown ample evidence of taking the great Yar’Adua legacy of servant leadership to its most logical conclusion.
From prompt and popular actions to bolster free, fair and credible elections, maintenance of stable prices for petroleum products, fiscal and monetary interventions in the real sectors and the burgeoning film industry, to silent but persistent responses to the energy challenges confronting the nation, President Jonathan has proven to everyone but die hard critics that, good luck notwithstanding, he is the right man for today.
Nigerians of every political persuasion were dispirited when death snatched from us the taciturn but hardworking President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. ‘Factor A’ pushed a deputy into office, whose sterling performance in the past nine months inspires us to declare even as the fateful April polls approach, “Long live the President” and look forward fervently to his triumph at the polls.
We may also note that history is waiting, willy-nilly, to count the patriots who answered the call of the National Pledge and the traitors who betrayed their patriotic conscience on the decadent altars of ethnic, parochial sentiments.